Bowie State University
What makes a city grow? How can a city maintain growth? These questions became paramount through the growth of the high technology industry and its impact on the regional economy. Researchers found that the distribution of human capital has shifted from the central city to the surrounding edge cities (Anas, et al. 1998). They soon discovered that cities that embrace entertainment consumption maintained a strong human capital base. Feldman and Florida (1994), Saxenian (1994) and Glaeser (1999) explored the theory that local entertainment amenities attracted productive human capital to the city. They found that a rise in productive human capital created a strong knowledge spillover through the development of cities that focused on entertainment and lifestyle venues. Researchers also discovered that the entertainment industry played a key role in fostering and maintaining large levels of local economic growth in an urban area. This paper argues that the music industry in Nashville, Tennessee creates economic spillovers that help to foster and maintain large levels of business and employment growth.
Feldman and Florida (1994) were the first to discuss the factors that would assist economic growth of cities under a technological infrastructure. The authors wrote that the technological infrastructure heavily relies on the social structure of an urban area. Florida (2002) later explored the importance of talent and diversity as a strong indicator for urban economic growth. Florida found that cities that emphasize the importance of music and entertainment nightlife tend to attract large levels of highly educated talent.
Saxenian (1994) discovered that the social setting of a society helped to create economic growth and technological change within a city. Glaeser, Kolko, and Saize (2001) found that cities that have a large entertainment industry such as live performance venues were among the largest growing metropolitan areas in the United States. Another work by Glaeser (1998) attributed the growth of cities to the younger population.
The music industry continues to attract young creative talent, which helps to contribute to the overall attractiveness of a city. This paper will estimate the economic impact of the music industry on the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The study will provide the employment and business sales effects from direct and indirect spending both in the music industry and by patrons to music events and attractions. Specifically, the report will demonstrate the economic value that the music industry generates for the middle Tennessee economy. The authors contend that if it is found that the music industry happens to create an increase in employment and sales, then the music industry has not only created an economic impact but according to previous literature it will also have the capabilities of maintaining this growth for years to come.
The methodology for this study replicates similar economic input-output reports of the music industry on the local city economies of Atlanta, Albany, Seattle, and Memphis. In the Atlanta and State of Georgia study, Edmiston and Thomas (2004) developed an impact study examining the music industry in Georgia. They found that the music industry generated $989.9 million and $1.9 billion on the economy as a whole. The City of Austin, Texas (2001) conducted a similar study for Austin. The authors found that the music industry generated over 11,000 jobs in the Austin MSA. Table 1 displays the direct annual economic impact, the induced economic impact, and the total number of jobs created in the music industries for Georgia, Austin, Seattle, and Memphis. The largest estimated direct economic impact, initial spending by all firms in the industry, was for Seattle in the amount of $1.3 billion. Georgia, Austin, and Memphis followed. Although the regional multiplier effects differ, the induced effects (gross sales) are directly related and consistent with the initial sales figure. Significant effects of tourism estimated by Memphis caused the city’s level of induced spending to exceed Austin.
Each dollar spent in the music industry has an impact on employment. Regional input-output analysis was used to estimate the number of jobs created in each region. The table shows significant variation, for example in Georgia $110,689 is required to create one job while only $57,280 in sales will create a job in Memphis.1 Differences in sales, profit, and income taxes make comparisons of tax revenue difficult, if not irrelevant.
Table 1. Comparison of Music Industry Economic Impacts.
A unique feature of this study is that a synthesis of approaches was developed to estimate and validate the findings. In most cases surveys are developed, for firms in the defined industry, to request information on earnings, employment, wages, and taxes. Once the survey responses are collected and aggregated (assuming a statistically reliable sample size), the results are run through multiplier models to determine the induced or “ripple effects” from the firms’ initial spending. Finally, the direct and induced values are added to produce the total economic impact of an industry.
In order to determine the economic impact of an industry like the music industry, which consists of a myriad of independent (freelance) artists, large music industry corporations, international organizations, and local support businesses and venues, specialized sources for revenue and sales data are required. Nashville MSA financial data for this study was mined from the 2002 County Business Patterns and purchased from ReferenceUSA, a commercial vendor of firms’ financial data. Once the relevant information was collected, total impacts were calculated by inputting the data through the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) input-output analysis.2
Finally, financial modeling of sectors within an industry is used to determine values that aren’t included in government or proprietary data sets. This approach enhances the accuracy of forecasts for the total impact of an industry. This approach was employed in this study to capture the impact of artist touring, due to the difficulty of extracting sales and revenues for touring businesses specific to the music industry.
To summarize, the Nashville Music Association Task Force provided the researchers with a proprietary list of its members. Additional industry “decision makers” were identified from Music Row Magazine, a quarterly publication that features information about Nashville music business activities. The data collected from the surveys were cross-referenced with the financial records from ReferenceUSA and Census Bureau data (County Business Patterns, 2002). Estimates of sales of businesses supporting artist tours were included from the touring artist model. The comparison of the data sets minimized double counting and ensured that a larger percentage of relevant businesses were included in the study.
Surveys were also taken at the Country Music Association Festival on June 6-8, 2005. Results from the surveys were compared with similar surveys conducted during the CMA festival by the Nashville Convention and Visitors Bureau. The data ascertained from these surveys were used as part of the analysis for estimating music related tourism in Nashville. Also, the surveys provided insight into the extent to which the music scene is a factor in tourists’ decision to visit the Nashville area.
Estimating Business Activity in the Nashville, Tennessee MSA
This section presents estimates for business activity related to the music industry within the Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The first section presents the descriptive findings taken from the 2002 U.S. County Business Patterns and U.S. Census Non-employer Statistics database. We begin with a description of the employment found in the Nashville MSA that is music related. Second we present the sales generated from industries that are music related. The third section compares the relationship of the number of establishments, employment, and earnings of music-related industry sectors within the 2002 period of the County Business Patterns database. The fourth section presents the economic impact of the music industry on the Nashville economy through presentation of the results from the REMI multiplier model. The fifth section presents the economic impact of the tourism industry that is influenced by Nashville’s popular music industry. The final section presents the fiscal impact of the Nashville music industry by generating the music industry’s impact on sales and residential property tax collection.
The researchers captured Nashville’s music-related employment, revenue, establishments, and earnings through analyzing various sources of data. They developed an actuate picture of the music industry through various industry sectors within the economy. The U.S. Census County Business Patterns database and Non-employer Statistics database were the primary sources for the findings. Relevant music-related industries were defined based upon Standard Industry Classification (SIC) codes. The 2002 County Business Patterns contain the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) while the REMI simulation model is based upon Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system. All relevant NAICS codes were converted into SIC codes using the Census bridging program. After converting NAICS codes to SIC codes, the authors derived employment, establishment, annual payroll data, and sales revenue data from 2002 County Business Patterns and Non-employer Statistics database.
In order to enhance the reliability of the data mined from the 2002 County Business Patterns and Non-employer Statistics database, the authors crosschecked their findings utilizing three different sources of data. The first source was the ReferenceUSA database. ReferenceUSA is an internet-based reference service from the library division of infoUSA. The ReferenceUSA database contains, in module format, detailed information on more than 12 million U.S. businesses, 102 million U.S. residents, and 683,000 U.S. health care providers. Information is compiled from the following public sources: more than 5,600 yellow page and business white page telephone directories; annual reports, 10-Ks, and other SEC information; federal, state, provincial, and municipal government data; Chamber of Commerce information; leading business magazines, trade publications, newsletters, and major newspapers. 250 employees make telephone calls to verify the information on each business and health care provider in the database. 17 million phone calls are made each year, and businesses with 100 or more employees are phone-verified at least twice per year.
The second source of data the authors utilized was from surveys distributed during the fall of 2005 to 325 music industry leaders. The list was compiled from membership and client lists from music business associations and from Music Row magazine’s annual “In Charge” edition. The survey requested information on firm’s annual sales, employment, expenses, and taxes (see Appendix 1). The response rate was consistent for mail surveys distributed in other impact study analysis (12% to 20%). The financial data was useful for estimating data for firms in comparable industries and confirming Census data.
The third source of data came from an accounting model that helped to capture the expenses and revenues from touring artists who launched tours, or traveled to performances, from Nashville. Estimates of tour income flowing into the Nashville MSA as well as merchandise sales were important income estimates for the study.
Once the three sources of data were cross-checked with the findings from the U.S. Census the authors were confident that the numbers presented within the following sections captured the universe of music-related industries within the Nashville MSA. The disaggregated data was then input into the REMI model based upon two digit SIC classification codes. The authors then disaggregated the output from the REMI model back into its original four digit SIC classification codes.
Table 2 displays the employment that is music related within the Nashville MSA. The authors compiled the number of employees for each music-related industry through weighted percentages and/or deriving the median between a small category ranges. For example, SIC category 5932 representing music stores had a category range of 500 to 999 employees. The authors took the median between the 500 to 999 ranges to derive 750 employees for this particular music industry.
Table 2 shows that 19,437 jobs within the Nashville MSA are music related. The largest music-related category is music-related self-employed individuals, which has 5,361 employees. The music-related self-employed category encompasses independent artists, writers, and performers who are self-employed and generating an income through the music industry. Musical groups and artists and promoters with facilities in category 7929 placed second with 2,000 employees within this industry. Agents and managers of artists and musical theaters followed third with 1,874 music-related jobs within the Nashville, MSA. Radio and television broadcasting was the next largest employer with 1,750 employees. The category “Business Trade Associations” included such industries as the American Society of Composers, Authors and Publishers; National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences; and the artists’ rights groups located in Nashville. Within this category, the authors found 927 employees were related to the music industry.
Table 2. Estimated employment in the Nashville music industry.
Source: 2002 County Business Patterns and U.S. Census Non-employer Statistics.
The total music-related business revenue for the Nashville MSA is over $2.6 billion. Table 3 presents estimates for business revenue by sector for each music industry in the Nashville, MSA. Integrated record production and music publishing generated the largest sales revenue estimated around $627 million. Radio and television broadcasting industries also con-
Table 3. Estimated revenue in the Nashville music industry.
Source: 2002 County Business Patterns and U.S. Census Non-employer Statistics.
tributed to Nashville’s music-related sales revenue by collecting $341.6 million in revenue. Music-related self-employed individuals ($290.7 million in revenue), agents and managers ($281.3 million in revenue) and musical groups and artist ($278.2 million in sales) followed having a significant impact on what makes Nashville known as “Music City”.
Earnings Per Worker and Total Earnings
Table 4 contains the number of establishments within the music industry by sector, along with estimated earnings. The Nashville music industry has over 2,000 business establishments. The largest number of mu-sic-related business establishments is SIC category 7929, musical groups and artist with 593 establishments in the Nashville MSA. Industry category 8999, record production and/or artist writer and performers, came in second with 211 establishments.
Estimated employment from table 2 is included in table 4 because the earnings per worker are calculated by dividing estimated earnings into estimated employment. The estimated earning for Nashville music-related industry is the annual payroll data from the U.S. Census, which is based on music-related industry sectors. The authors found that the Nashville music industry generated $722 million in wages and salary. The music-related self-employed category generated the largest earnings among music-related sectors with an estimated $40,000 per worker. The music groups and artist category also estimated total earnings of $99.4 million.
Economic Impact Estimates: Employment
The economic impact of Nashville music industry employment from table 2 was calculated using the REMI multiplier model. The authors input the employment data into the REMI multiplier input-output program to determine the economic impact of music-related employment on the Nashville economy. Table 5 shows that the 19,437 jobs from music-related industries generated a total of 39,263 jobs to Nashville and the surrounding area in all sectors of the economy including agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation. The Nashville music industry employment had a multiplier of 2.02, which implies that for every one employee employed by the music industry, this employee’s economic activity such as consumption of other industry goods and services, will create an additional two jobs for the Nashville Middle Tennessee area. The music-related self-employed individuals who generated the largest number of additional jobs through indirect and induced expenditure were those in the music stores industry creating 944 additional jobs. Clubs, taverns, and lodges (SIC category 5813) also generated twice the jobs within this category to the Nashville economy.
Table 4. Earnings and work-related income in the Nashville music industry 2002.
Source: 2002 County Business Patterns and U.S. Census. D = Withheld to avoid disclosing data of individual companies
Table 5. Economic impact of the Nashville music industry (employment).
Economic Impact Estimates: Sales Revenue
In order to determine the economic impact of music-related sales revenue on the Nashville Middle Tennessee area, the sales revenue data from table 3, were input through the REMI multiplier input-output program. The results in table 6 indicate that the $2.6 billion in sales revenue directly related to the music industry generated a total of $3.97 billion in revenue for the entire Nashville Middle Tennesee area. This implies that the Nashville music industry generated $1.3 billion in sales revenue either from
Table 6. Economic impact of the Nashville industry estimated revenue 2002.
Source: 2002 County Business Patterns and U.S. Census Non-employer Statistics.
indirect or induced economic expenditure. The output multiplier is approximately 1.50, which means that every $1.00 of output sales revenue by the music industry has a $1.50 impact on the Nashville economy. Music-re-lated self-employed individuals had one of the largest multiplier effects, generating an additional $139.9 million on sales either from indirect or induced expenditure to the Nashville economy. Clubs, taverns, and lounges also played a large role in generating sales revenue to the Nashville economy causing a total increase in sales revenue to exceed $114.6 million.
Music-Related Tourism: Sales
To further understand Nashville’s role as “Music City USA” the authors also input the $1.12 billion in sales revenue from tourism that is music related into the REMI model. Table 7 shows that music-related tourism impacts the total Nashville economy by $2.4 billion in output. Music-re-lated tourism created an even larger sales revenue multiplier of 2.16, which implies that for every $1.00 in music-related tourism sales an additional $2.16 to the entire Nashville Economy is generated. Table 7 also shows that the largest impact from music-related tourism comes from the retail industry with induced and indirect expenditures over $265 million. By combining the sales revenue generated from table 6 with the sales revenue generated from music-related tourism, we conclude that the music industry created a total of $6.4 billion of sales output to the Nashville economy.
Table 7. Nashville music-related tourism sales 2002.
Music-Related Tourism: Employment
Table 8 presents the economic impact of music-related tourism employment on the Nashville economy. The Nashville music tourism industry created over 4,995 jobs either through indirect or induced expenditure. This created a total of 14,995 jobs attributed to the Nashville music tourism industry. The results from music-related industry’s impact on the Nashville economy in table 5, combined with the music tourism employment results, conclude that the total Nashville music industry, including tourism, generated over 54,000 jobs to the Nashville economy.
The findings of the local city music industry studies provided a path for the authors of this paper to question whether Nashville’s music industry could create a significant economic impact on its Metropolitan Statistical
Table 8. Nashville music-related tourism employment.
Area. The authors contended, based upon previous literature, that the music industry in Nashville is a growing industry capable of maintaining and fostering strong economic growth. This paper confirms this contention, and the authors have concluded that Nashville’s decision to market itself as “Music City USA” has helped create and sustain a viable economic base to its Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Appendix 1. Survey Questionnaires.
Appendix 1. Survey Questionnaires. (cont.)
Appendix 1. Survey Questionnaires. (cont.)
a Metropolitan Statistical Area: Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Robertson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson, and Wilson counties.
b Examples: rent, mortgage, office/maintenance supplies and materials, entertainment, events and catering, marketing and advertising, travel expenses.
c Total revenue is gross receipts from the sales of goods and services produced by firms/divisions located in the Nashville MSA.
Audio & Video Equipment Mfg. – This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing electronic audio and video equipment for home entertainment, motor vehicle, public address, and musical instrument amplification. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Direct Economic Effect – The initial changes and flows of employment and business sales that are related specifically to the music industry. Data for this category comes from the 2002 County Business Patterns.
Human Capital – 1. The stock of knowledge and skill, embodied in an individual as a result of education, training, and experience, that makes him or her more productive. 2. The stock of knowledge and skill embodied in the population of an economy. (www-personal.umich.edu/~alandear/glossary/h.html)
Indirect/Induced Economics Effects – this data includes the aggregated two SIC results form the REMI model, which was later disaggregated by the authors back into four digit disaggregated results. It includes the investment spending by suppliers and its impact on household consumption through changes in wages and employment.
Knowledge Spillovers – an exchange of ideas which promotes creativity and innovation. (Carlino, 2001)
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – A geographic entity, defined by OMB for statistical purposes, containing a large population nucleus and adjacent communities having a high degree of social and economic integration with that nucleus. Under the 1990 metropolitan area standards, qualification of an MSA required a city with 50,000 population or more, or an urbanized area of 50,000 population or more and a total population of at least 100,000 (75,000 in New England). MSAs are composed of entire counties, except in New England where the components are cities and towns. (Office of Management and Budget)
Appendix 2. Definitions.
Music Books Printing or Printing and Binding Without Publishing – Establishments primarily engaged in printing or printing and binding books and pamphlets without publishing. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Music Publishers and/or Distribution – This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in releasing, promoting, and distributing sound recordings. These establishments manufacture, or arrange for the manufacture, of recordings, such as audio tapes/cassettes and compact discs, and promote and distribute these products to wholesalers, retailers, or directly to the public. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Music, Sheet, Gravure Printing Without Publishing – Industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in gravure printing without publishing (except books, grey goods, and manifold business forms). This industry includes establishments engaged in gravure printing on purchased stock materials, such as stationery, letterhead, invitations, labels, and similar items, on a job order basis. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Music, Sheet, Lithographic (Offset) Printing Without Publishing – Establishments primarily engaged in lithographic (i.e., offset) printing without publishing (except books, grey goods, and manifold business forms). This industry includes establishments engaged in lithographic printing on purchased stock materials, such as stationery, letterhead, invitations, labels, and similar items, on a job order basis. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Music, Sheet Printing Without Publishing – Comprises establishments primarily engaged in flexographic printing without publishing (except books, grey goods, and manifold business forms). This industry includes establishments engaged in flexographic printing on purchased stock materials, such as stationery, invitations, labels, and similar items, on a job order basis. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Music Therapists’ Offices (e.g., Centers, Clinics) – This industry comprises establishments of independent health practitioners primarily engaged in one of the following: planning and administering educational, recreational, and social activities designed to help patients or individuals with disabilities regain physical or mental functioning or
Appendix 2. Definitions. (cont.)
to adapt to their disabilities; and diagnosing and treating speech, language, or hearing problems with an emphasis on music. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Musical Instrument Mfg. – This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing musical instruments (except toys). (U.S. Census Bureau)
Musical Instrument & Supplies Stores – Establishments primarily engaged in selling musical instruments such as organs, pianos, horns, stringed instruments, and percussion instruments; sheet music; and similar supplies. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Prerecorded Tape, CD & Record Stores – Establishments primarily engaged in the wholesale distribution of durable goods, not elsewhere classified, such as compact disks, prerecorded audio tapes, and phonograph records. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Radio & Television Broadcasting – Establishments primarily engaged in broadcasting aural programs by radio to the public. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Regional Multiplier Process – Is best explained through employment. Each additional job from the music industry in our case generates income that is spent on local goods and therefore increases employment in the regional economy.
Appendix 2. Definitions. (cont.)
1 State of Georgia equation: $989.9 million / 8,943 jobs = $110,689. Memphis study equation: $239 million / 4,155 = $57,280.
2 The REMI (Regional Economic Models, Inc.) is a dynamic simulation model that is utilized by the authors to examine the economic effects of the Nashville, Tennessee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The model divides the regional economy into 70 to 169 NAICS (North American Industry Classification Codes) and 808 population, age, and ethnicity cohorts. The REMI simulation model controls for key exogenous variables such as migration propensities, fertility, mortality, labor force participation, productivity, income, government revenues, and expenditures. Further information regarding the REMI model can be found in Treyz, G. I., D. Rickman, and G. Shao. “The REMI Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation Model.” International Regional Science Review 14, no. 3 (1992): 221–253.
3 The REMI model has previously controlled for migration propensities, fertility, mortality, labor force participation, growth rates, and structural changes in the economy. Therefore the authors calculate the multiplier as: Multiplier = Total Employment derived from the Nashville music industry economy (direct, indirect, and induced economic effect) / Employment directly from the Nashville music industry (direct economic effect). For further clarity see Appendix 2 for definitions.
4 The REMI model has previously controlled for migration propensities, fertility, mortality, labor force participation, growth rates, and structural changes in the economy. Therefore the authors calculate the multiplier as: Multiplier = Total Business Sales derived from the Nashville music industry economy (direct, indirect, and induced economic effect) / Business Sales directly from the Nashville music industry (direct economic effect). For further clarity see Appendix 2 for definitions.
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The Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce provided logistical and networking support for this study. Belmont University contributed the financial support for the project
Holding a B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Alabama, PATRICK RAINES provides leadership for the College of Business Administration and The Jack C. Massey Graduate School of Business at Belmont University. In addition to his duties as the Dean, he is a Professor of Economics and led the MBA International Study Abroad program to Chile, Argentina, and the Czech Republic. He also teaches courses in comparative economic systems and financial institutions and markets. Prior to coming to Belmont University, Dr. Raines was the F. Carlyle Tiller Chair of Business at the University of Richmond where he served as Chair of the Economics Department and Academic Director of the Richmond-Capital One MBA Program.
Dr. Raines’ work has been published in prestigious journals including Cambridge Journal of Economics, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Journal of Economic Issues, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, History of Economic Thought, and History of Political Economy. Edward Elgar, Ltd. has published two books written by Dr. Raines and Dr. Charles G. Leathers, the latest of which is entitled The Economics of Higher Education.
Dr. Raines was selected as a Fulbright Scholar to the College of the Bahamas from 1989-1990. His responsibilities included teaching economics and consulting with the Bahamian Ministry of Tourism. In the early stages of transition to capitalism, The Citizen’s Ambassadors Association chose Dr. Raines to lead one of the first industrial development groups to the former Soviet republics to establish educational and industrial relationships with emerging market enterprises.
LATANYA N. BROWN has over ten years of experience in the field of economics. In December of 2003, Dr. Brown received her doctorate degree in economics from Howard University. Currently, Dr. Brown holds a position as an Assistant Economics Professor at Bowie State University in Bowie, Maryland. She serves on various university committees including Faculty Senate and the University Strategic Planning Committee. She worked as an economic advisor to the book Living Your Life Backward by Reginald Daniel.
Dr. Brown developed market and feasibility studies for the proposed Westphalia Town Center Project in Prince George’s County, Maryland. She served as a book reviewer for McGraw Hill Publishers. She serves as a co-advisor to her university’s Economics and Finance Club and has worked on service learning grant proposals with Bowie State University and Howard University.
Before her post at Bowie State, Dr. Brown spent one year at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee as a Visiting Professor where she taught economics courses and wrote a paper for various record labels and the Chamber of Commerce examining the economic impact of the music industry on the city of Nashville. She also has held positions and conducted funded research for the federal government. Previously, she worked as a financial economist with the Washington, D.C. Office of Research and Analysis. Her job entailed forecasting sales and individual income tax revenue for the city of Washington, D.C. She developed economic models for tax policy initiatives that were presented by city council. She was also a member of the team that examined the structural imbalance of the Washington, D.C. government.
Dr. Brown also worked with the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Office of Policy Research and Analysis as an Economic Research Affiliate. While at HUD, she helped develop housing policies that brought forward such publications as “The State of the Cities,” “Now is the Time,” and “The Rural Report.” Dr. Brown has presented papers at the American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Conference, and the Southern and Eastern Economic Association Conferences. She has written urban and housing economic papers that have received grant funding through the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Dr. Brown is also a member of the National Association of Business Economists, the Eastern Economic Association, and the National Association of Securities Dealers. She is currently featured in the Manchester’s Who’s Who Among Professional Women.